Iran, US prepare to reopen nuclear talks, will Tehran surrender to Donald Trump's threats?

After bombing Houthi militants in Yemen and launching a global trade war, US President Donald Trump has turned his attention to Iran, which is considered his unfinished job. Though supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has refused to talk to the US, the two countries have opened back channel, and they are most likely to begin talks next week, most likely in Qatar. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian agreed to talks after his US counterpart threatened to bomb the Shiite country. 

What happened to earlier nuclear deal?

However, the US-Iran Nuclear Talks will not be as easy as it appears, considering the fact that the two countries took two years to sign a deal in 2015. Barack Obama coaxed Tehran to sign the deal, assured to withdraw economic sanctions and five other nations (the UK, China, France, Russia, and Germany) joined the US to convince the Shiite nation.  Washington waved the economic sanctions, and Iran agreed to IAEA inspection, stick to civil use and stop further enrichment of uranium after the two countries signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). 

However, when Donald Trump became US President, he canceled the deal, reimposed economic sanctions, imposed some new provisions and threatened Iran. Tehran retaliated by declining the inspection by the international nuclear watchdog and resumed uranium enrichment. The IAEA believes, Iran has achieved 60% enrichment and it has materials enough to make six warheads. 

What does Donald Trump want?

After threatening the Shiite nation of bombing it, Donald Trump has put conditions that Tehran is most likely to refuse. The US wants a complete dismantlement of nuclear facilities. It has also demanded an assurance that Iran will never back Palestinian militant group Hamas and Lebanon-based Shia militia Hezbollah. Many experts believe, these are the red lines, that Iran will not cross, though it may agree to stop further enrichment if economic sanctions are waived. 

However, experts point out that Iran is under tremendous pressure. It is on the verge of economic collapse due to the US economic sanctions, that have crippled its economy. It has crumbled drastically also due to chronic mismanagement and corruption. The middle class, particularly women, is at the receiving end. Its currency Rial lost over 50% of its value in one year and it has recorded a GDP growth rate of 3.8%.

Iran under pressure

Tehran is under political and geostrategic pressure more than the economic crisis. Pro-Iran President Bashar-al-Assad of Syria was driven out and forced to take shelter in Russia after militants under the leadership of Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, captured Damascus in January this year. 

Both Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated to such an extent that they may take years to regroup and regain their lost status. Their top leadership has been abolished, weapons destroyed, bases bombed and cadres liquidated. Hamas is not likely to come to the power in Gaza Strip, Israeli troops have captured almost two-thirds of the area.  Hezbollah too has been left deserted in the ruins with most of its middle-level leaders and cadres being killed. The US bombed the Houthi militants in Yemen, destroying most of its missiles and drones, supplied by Iran. 

Will Masoud Pezeshkian succeed?

Besides, the politics of Iran has undergone drastic change with liberal Masoud Pezeshkian becoming president and the supreme leader being critically ill. Liberals have made a dramatic surge in the country and Ali Khamenei has lost much of his clout. 

Analysts believe Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will willingly walk the extra miles to reach to a nuclear deal so that he could put the country back on the track of economic recovery. The US too may be satisfied with the stoppage of uranium enrichment and Donald Trump may not put emphasis on complete dismantlement of all nuclear facilities. 

Will a nuclear deal be signed?