Donald Trump’s Tariff War: Know why there is unexpected risk of toilet paper shortage for Americans

Former US President Donald Trump's plan to increase tariffs on Canadian lumber could create a new crisis in America, possibly leading to a repeat of the panic-buying seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. His administration has proposed almost doubling duties on Canadian softwood lumber, which could disrupt the supply chain for an essential product—toilet paper.

Why Are These Tariffs a Big Deal?
Trump has promised to hike duties on softwood lumber to 27% by April 2, with a possibility of additional levies pushing the rate above 50%. This could significantly impact the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), a key material used in making toilet paper and paper towels.

NBSK, derived from wood chips, is highly valued for its strength and durability. It makes up 30% of standard US bathroom tissue and 50% of a typical paper towel. According to Brian McClay, chairman of Trusted Providers of Global Pulp Market Information, the US imported 2 million tons of Canadian NBSK last year, showing just how dependent American manufacturers are on Canadian pulp.

Impact on the Industry
McClay explained that many US paper mills rely on specific Canadian pulp mills because they have been using their products for decades. If Canadian pulp mills shut down due to high tariffs, it would be difficult for US manufacturers to find alternatives.

Additionally, Canada does not cut trees just for pulp—it depends on leftover wood chips from sawmills. If tariffs go beyond 50%, many sawmills might shut down, reducing the supply of these wood chips, increasing costs, and lowering output.

Reminder of Pandemic Panic
These potential disruptions raise fears of another toilet paper shortage, similar to the one experienced during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers may see higher prices or struggle to find toilet paper and paper towels on store shelves.

Why American Companies Prefer Canadian Lumber
Trump has frequently pushed for tariffs to encourage American manufacturing and has claimed that the US does not need Canadian lumber. However, industry experts argue that Canadian softwood pulp is superior and cannot be easily replaced with American alternatives.

Frederic Verreault, vice president of corporate affairs at a Quebec-based wood processor, explained that American companies buy Canadian products because they are the best and fit seamlessly into their manufacturing processes.

Jean-Francois Samray, head of the Quebec Forest Industry Council, added that sawmills cannot easily adjust their production levels—they either operate at full capacity or shut down. This means production changes in Canada will directly affect supply and demand in North America.

The Ongoing Trade Dispute
Currently, the US applies duties of over 14% on Canadian lumber. This year, one of those duties is set to increase to 27% under a US Department of Commerce proposal. Additionally, the White House is considering a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, which could push the total import tax on lumber to about 52%.

Trump has also launched an investigation into national security concerns around lumber imports, which could result in even higher tariffs in the future.

On April 2, a temporary delay on additional tariffs under the US-Canada trade deal is set to expire. Trump has pledged to announce more tariffs on the same day, claiming that US trade policies need to be "reciprocal" with other countries.

If these tariffs go into effect, American consumers could see rising prices, supply shortages, and another round of toilet paper panic-buying—all due to a trade dispute over softwood lumber.