Has monsoon arrived in India early this year due to global warming and climate change? IMD says...

Has monsoon arrived in India early this year due to climate change? The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement that the monsoon had arrived in Mumbai "16 days earlier than usual". It should hit the city by June 11 ideally. It is also said that it is the earliest onset of monsoon for nearly a quarter of a century. Regional IMD chief Shubhangi Bhute confirmed it was the earliest arrival of the monsoon in 14 years. The southwest monsoon brings almost 80% of the rains between June and September each year. It begins with seasonal heat warming the landmass, causing air to rise and drawing in cooler winds from the Indian Ocean, bringing massive rains. 

Southwest monsoon hits early, moves quickly.

The southwest monsoon has already hit Kerala, Tamil Nadu, large parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra ahead of time. The monsoon has not only arrived early, its rapid expanse is shocking, it has covered from Kerala to Maharashtra in a single day- May 24. However, the issue of concern is why it is so early and so quick this year. Is it due to climate change? It can be compared to the incident in 1971 when the monsoon swept across a large part of Karnataka and Maharashtra very quickly and made strong early rains.

Global warming, climate change?

The onset and spread of the monsoon are triggered by many factors, no one factor is responsible for it. Generally, it is a mixture of  both natural climatic systems and human-induced changes—like global warming and climate change. The Indian Meteorological Department has clarified that global warming has only a limited influence on a massive system like the monsoon. 

Moisture level rises

It has been accepted by now that global warming has led to a reduction in snow cover across Eurasia and the Himalayas. It reduced to the extent of 15% below the earlier average level of 1990–2020.  Less snow means lower surface reflectivity, which increases land surface heating. This is one of the factors that trigger stronger monsoon circulation by mid-May.

Secondly, as the average global temperature in 2025 has increased by 1.25 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial age, it caused high moisture levels in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal by May and it fueled early cloud formation. The average moisture level has gone up about 6% this year.