West Bengal erupts over Waqf Act: Will protests benefit both TMC and BJP, change 2026 Election landscape?

Violent protests against the Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2024, signed the northern district of the state of West Bengal have left many questions, yet to be answered. How will the demonstration, which resulted in the death of three men and the arrest of more than 150 people, impact the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026? Will the anti-Waqf Act protests and the subsequent violence benefit the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee? Will the BJP succeed in setting the narrative of atrocities on Hindus and their exodus from the state?

Ejaz Ahmed killed in police firing

Violence erupted in Murshidabad and other areas of West Bengal, like Jangipur, Amtala, Suti, Dhuliyan, and North 24 Parganas, against the Waqf (Amendment) Act on Friday, after a huge crowd came out on the streets. As policemen tried to stop the crowd, they were pelted with stones. The state police lathi-charged the mob and opened fire at the Sajurmore crossing on NH 12, killing  21-year-old Ejaz Ahmed.

Additional Director General of Police, Law and Order, Jawed Shamim said police had to resort to firing to control the mob on Friday evening, adding that 15 police personnel were injured in the violence. Explaining the firing, Shamim told journalists, "But the mob started to ransack, set fire to public property and buses, and attacked the police. We had to resort to firing. Four rounds were fired, and two persons were injured."

Chandan Das, Hargobind Das hacked to death

In a separate incident, Chandan Das and his father, Hargobind Das were hacked to death by a mob. Chandan's wife, Pinki, told the Indian Express, "We kept calling the police after the attacks started. No one answered. Even after they hacked my husband and father-in-law to death, the bodies lay near our house for three hours."

Political analysts believe the violence is sure to impact the West Bengal Assembly Elections. Earlier, the main opposition, the BJP, accused Mamata Banerjee of indulging in appeasement politics and failing to protect the Hindus, while the ruling TMC accused the saffron party of trying to divide the secular state on communal lines by inflaming communal politics and hatred. 

How will Waqf Act impact Assembly Elections?

The Waqf Act and the subsequent protest are sure to polarize West Bengal politics and drive the Muslims into the fold of the TMC more than before. In a state with more than 30% of the Muslim population and more than 100 assembly seats where minorities can decide the fate of the candidates, it will be a much better political scenario for the party. 

Among the 42 Muslim MLAs elected to the West Bengal Assembly in 2021, all but one Muslim legislator belongs to the ruling TMC. In the Lok Sabha Elections, 2024, the TMC held its sway in the Muslim-significant seats in the West Bengal Lok Sabha with 17 seats. BJP trailed with 2 seats. In the Lok Sabha Elections, 2019, TMC won 14 of these seats, where Muslims constituted at least 20% of the population. BJP won four seats, while Congress followed with two seats. 

Will TMC, BJP reap rich political dividends?

The communal polarization will drive more Hindus into the fold of the BJP, while more Muslims may opt to vote for the Mamata Banerjee-led party. However, the house of TMC MLA Manirul Islam and the office of local TMC MP Khalilur Rehman in Murshidabad were ransacked on Friday. He claimed that he wanted to talk to the agitators, but they heckled him. It shows that the TMC is losing direct connection to the people, who may think that the party leader was not with them when they needed him most. 

However, Mamata Banerjee put the onus on the BJP. Taking to X, she wrote on the social media platform, "The Central government introduced that law. So, if you want to ask, ask the Centre… We already specified our stance that we do not support such a law. We will not implement this law in our state."

Is Mamata Banerjee losing connect?

She wondered, "Then why are you rioting?… Whoever is instigating riots, we will take stern action against them. We will not tolerate any violence."

But it is too late. The BJP set the narrative that the state government had failed to protect the Hindus. The party that is reeling under the charge of widespread corruption and internal bickering will have to face the anti-incumbency wave after being in the government for three consecutive terms. On top of it, any disenchantment of the majority of Hindus may complicate the situation and create unsurmountable problems for the party.