How may PM Narendra Modi's Cyprus visit change Turkey-Pakistan ties? Will it end China-Pakistan-Turkey axis?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Cyprus days after the India-Pakistan clashes, in which Turkey has come out openly in support of Islamabad, by supplying it with drones, that played a vital role in Pakistani combat. Secondly, the Mediterranean island nation will soon take over the rotating presidency of the European Union. Is it just a coincidence that an Indian prime minister has visited the country after 23 years? Or is it a well-calculated move that may impact the geopolitics of the Mediterranean, the EU and South Asia? 

Cyprus bestows highest honour on Indian PM

Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides welcomed PM Modi at Larnaca International Airport, breaking protocol. He was also given the highest civilian honour of Cyprus, ‘The Grand Cross of the Order of Makarios III’. The two leaders discussed strengthening commercial ties, particularly in sectors such as innovation, energy, and technology.

Cyprus-Turkey Ties

However, PM Modi's Cyprus visit is much more significant for geopolitical reasons, keeping in mind Turkey, which wants to emerge as an important player in the politics of the Muslim world and that of South Asia. Cyprus and Turkey have been at daggers drawn for decades. The dispute between the two countries began in 1974 when the Cypriot National Guard, sponsored by the Greek military junta, staged a coup d'état. Responding to the coup attempt, Ankara invaded the Mediterranean island, occupied its northern part and split the country forcibly. Separatist Turkish Cypriots declared the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) in 1983, and Turkey quickly recognized it. However, it is the only country in the world to recognize the northern part of the island. The United Nations has made many attempts to mediate and facilitate negotiations between the two sides, but in vain.

Turkey-Pakistan bonhomie

Analysts believe, peeved at Turkey's support to Pakistan, India wants to send a strong signal to Ankara so that it could correct its approach towards Pakistan and the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Turkey has traditionally been saying that Jammu and Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan and the two countries should sit together to resolve the issue. It has not so far talked about the UN resolution and the plebiscite in the area. However, it changed its stand in the last few months and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered to mediate in his last Pakistan visit taking place in 2024. He later also added that Turkey would do it only if both parties agreed as it has close ties with both of them. 

However, much to the chagrin of India, Ankara not only supplied Pakistan with its corvettes under the MILGEM project but also acquired Pakistani Super Mushshak trainers. Earlier, Ankara supplied Pakistan with Bayraktar and Songar drones. Turkey also signed a $75 million deal to upgrade 41 of Pakistan's F-16 fighter jets. It also supplied advanced targeting pods for Pakistan’s JF-17 jets and an electronic warfare training range. Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar signed a deal with Pakistan’s National Aerospace Science and Technology Park in 2023 to jointly develop UAVs. 

When India-Pakistan tension was at its highest point following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, an IC-130 plane of the Turkish Air Force landed in Pakistan on April 27 and a Turkish Navy anti-submarine corvette docked at Karachi port on May 2, believed to help Pakistan and send strong signals to India. 

Ummah Politics

Analysts suggest Ankara is helping Pakistan, intending to boost its position in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, or the OIC. The 57-member bloc is dominated by Saudi Arabia and Iran. Turkey wants to bolster its position by claiming that it has supported an Islamic nation. After the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey moved swiftly towards radical Islam. The Turkish president now nurtures the ambition of becoming the head of the Umma, or the Islamic World. The Pahalgam attack has given him this opportunity.

Cyprus and EU

Prime Minister Modi's visit to Cyprus at this juncture is also significant from another angle. The Mediterranean island nation will take over the presidency of the EU in the beginning of 2026. India and the 27-member bloc are likely to be ready to sign the FTA by that time. Cyprus may also play a significant role by supporting India at this forum. 

If India improves relations with Cyprus, will it exert pressure on Turkey? Or will Ankara move closer to Pakistan? Analysts believe, that as India has been forging closer ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are major stakeholders in the politics of the Muslim world or the Ummah, Ankara may have to think twice before creating problems for it. However, Turkey has made its intention clear by moving closer to Bangladesh, which has recently fallen out with India. Now, India as well as Turkey are at a crossroads and both of them will have to rework their ties.