ANALYSIS
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ specialized intelligence unit for espionage has taken over the investigation.
Iran has arrested over two dozen people, including top intelligence officers, military officials and staff at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, after a significant security breach led to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior leader who had headed Hamas’s political office in Qatar. This information comes from two Iranians knowledgeable about the investigation. The strong reaction to Haniyeh’s assassination highlights the severe security lapse it represents for Iran’s leadership.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ specialized intelligence unit for espionage has taken over the investigation. They are searching for suspects who might lead them to the team that planned, assisted and executed the killing, according to two Iranian officials who spoke anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the investigation.
The Anatomy of the Killing
Haniyeh was in Iran for the inauguration of the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and was staying at a guesthouse in northern Tehran. Middle East and Iranian officials who are in the know have said a bomb that had been planted in Haniyeh’s room almost two months before he arrived caused a deadly explosion. So far, they have not released specifics of the arrests or the cause of the explosion.
The assassination took place in a highly secured area within hours of the new president’s swearing-in ceremony. Iranian officials and Hamas accused Israel of being behind the assassination. Several US officials agreed with this assessment. Israel, which has pledged to dismantle Hamas’s leadership and military capabilities, has not admitted to planting the bomb.
Security Team Get Cracking
After the attack, Iranian security agents raided the guesthouse compound belonging to the Revolutionary Guards Corps, where Haniyeh often stayed in the same room during his visits to Tehran. The agents quarantined all the guesthouse staff, arrested some and confiscated all electronic devices, including personal phones. Another team of agents interrogated senior military and intelligence officials responsible for the capital’s security. They put several of them under arrest until the investigations are complete.
During the raid on the guesthouse compound, security agents thoroughly inspected every inch, including months of surveillance footage and guest lists. They also examined the movements of staff members, who are carefully vetted before employment and come from the ranks of the Guards and the Basij, its volunteer paramilitary force, according to the two Iranian officials as reported by NYT.
The investigation also extended to Tehran’s international and domestic airports. Agents have been reviewing months of camera footage from the arrival and departure areas and examining flight lists. The two Iranian officials said Iran believed that some members of Mossad’s assassination team were still in the country and aimed to arrest them.
A member of the Revolutionary Guards, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he was not aware of the arrests, but noted that security protocols for senior officials had been completely overhauled in the past two days. Security details for senior officials were changed and electronic devices, such as mobile phones were swapped out. He also mentioned that some senior officials had been relocated.
A Shocking Wake-Up Call
The thorough investigation by the Revolutionary Guards shows just how much the assassination has shaken the country’s leaders. The explosion, which also killed Haniyeh’s Palestinian bodyguard, was not just a major intelligence and security failure. It also highlighted their inability to protect an important ally and prevent Mossad infiltration, while severely damaging their reputation. It was all these things combined and more.
Perhaps most importantly, it was a shocking wake-up call. If Israel could attack such an important guest on a day with extra security in the capital and at a highly secure location with bulletproof windows, air defences and radar, it meant that no one was truly safe.
The close relationship between Haniyeh and Iran’s supreme leader has also raised concerns, as they met at Khamenei’s residence just hours before the assassination. At Haniyeh’s funeral in Tehran on Friday, Khamenei was surrounded by more bodyguards than usual as he performed an Islamic prayer ritual for the body. He then left immediately, stopping only briefly to greet Haniyeh’s son.
Ali Vaez, Iran’s director for the International Crisis Group, was quoted by The New York Times (NYT) as saying the idea that Iran could not protect its own territory, or its important allies, could be very dangerous for the Iranian regime’s image. This suggests to its enemies that, even if they cannot overthrow the Islamic Republic, they can target its leadership.
New Policies & Strategies
This security breach calls for new policies and strategies. It could involve arresting spies if there was infiltration, or retaliating if the attack was carried out from outside the borders, or perhaps a mix of both, said Sasan Karimi, a political analyst in Tehran, during a phone interview with NYT.
Iran and Israel have been involved in a secretive conflict for years. Israel has killed over a dozen nuclear scientists and military leaders inside Iran, including top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, using a remote-controlled, AI-assisted robot in 2020. Israel has also sabotaged infrastructure, such as blowing up gas pipes in February, and has attacked military and nuclear sites.
Iran has struggled after each attack and promised to find those responsible. It has fired a top intelligence chief, arrested a military commander and repeatedly announced that it has uncovered Israeli spy networks. Just four days before Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s intelligence minister, Seyed Esmaeil Khatib, told the local media that Iran had smashed a ring of Mossad moles who had been killing Iran’s top scientists and sabotaging key facilities. The shock of Haniyeh’s assassination followed soon after.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
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